Pre-Open Commentary | Sep 26, 24 (GDP)
Condensed Insight Before the Bell.
//Midterm Sentiment//
(days)
TrendPhase: Bullish (Sep 17)
Orderflow: Bullish (Sep 23)
------------------------------
(weeks)
Positioning: Neutral (Sep 13)
Dealers: Neutral (Jul 11)
------------------------------
(months)
Seasonality: Bearish (Sep 3)
VIX: Bullish (Sep 18)
//Longterm//
Great Cycle: Bullish (March 2020) until 2027/2028Intraday TrendPhase: Neutral
------------------------------
//Actionable Levels//
Resistance: 5830, 5856-60
Support: -Key takeways:
On the surface nothing changed, at least in the midterm metrics. We are having quite a rally in overnight at time of writing this.
So why is this day different? Options. Price is aproaching significant level which in ES terms is about 5830. Overnight metrics are diverging with the rally strongly. SR1 is below SR2, sentiment in the terminal GEX Ladder heavily negative, options88 opened and stays above 5. So lot of not normal action.
So, are these opportunities to maybe short this market today? Well, historically this is not as straight forward as we would like to. On days like today we had massive drops but also short-squeezes. I think the best way to go about these rare sessions is to simply stay out of intraday trading or trade much smaller size and look for orderflow confirmation; i’m not sure our new options metrics in the terminal are going to be helpful today.
Also, we have GDP data today so fast macro can downtick and send some bearish signals. Definietly not the slow macro though.
Notes/Observations/Issues:
Pre-Open Commentary distills key takeaways from the analysis of the London GEX and Structure posts and also serves as my personal journal (sort of).