Pre-Open Commentary | Sep 18, 24 (FED rate cut)
Condensed Insight Before the Bell.
Updated sept. opex structure (SPX/all levels actionable):
//Midterm Sentiment//
(days)
TrendPhase: Bullish (Sep 17)
Orderflow: Neutral (Sep 17)
------------------------------
(weeks)
Positioning: Neutral (Sep 13)
Dealers: Neutral (Jul 11)
------------------------------
(months)
Seasonality: Bearish (Sep 3)
VIX: Bullish (Sep 18)
//Longterm//
Great Cycle: Bullish (March 2020) until 2027/2028Intraday TrendPhase: Neutral/Bearish
------------------------------
//Actionable Levels//
Resistance: 5766-80
Support: 5655Key takeways:
“The most important rate cut this decade…”, at least this is what they say in the news; personally I’m not convinced that much. If you have watched the $ cycle I presented in The Great Cycles, you will know that a bit of rate cut by the end of dem. presidency is rather normal. Especially when it is ellection year and polls are not pointing clearly to any of the candidates.
One thing changed since yesterday, and it is VIX term structure. It turned bullish.
And this is basically what makes me want to take small midterm long (1/4 max) - as right now we have slight advantage in overall metrics for bulls.
And to be honest, whatever is going to happen, even with opex week considered, the long term cycle is still up and it should prevent harder drops as it did every time in recent months.
Obviously, price wise, we are in opex levels red zone, a rather bad location to get in longs - but that is why I will initiate small position at first and might add if market retraces.
Notes/Observations/Issues:
I have located quite unusual behavior on trendphase in recent bottom, which after reviewing the past, confirmed that it might be a missing piece in situations where signal (especially long signal) lags more than average. I added this as a rule to midterm trendphase (dark blue dot signal), it is rare but when it apears it seems to have high level of importance. What it shows basically is it shows up when there are two cosecutive days when market falls but sr1 is above sr2.
Pre-Open Commentary distills key takeaways from the analysis of the London GEX and Structure posts and also serves as my personal journal (sort of).