Pre-Open Commentary | Sep 06, 24 (NFP)
Condensed Insight Before the Bell.
//Midterm Sentiment//
TrendPhase: Bearish (Sep 5)
Orderflow: Bearish (Aug 28)
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Positioning: Neutral (Sep 4)
Dealers: Neutral (Jul 11)
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Seasonality: Bearish (Sep 3)
VIX: Bearish (Sep 3)Intraday TrendPhase: Neutral/Bearish
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//Actionable Levels//
Resistance: 5582, 5644
Support: 5423-18, 5347 Key takeways:
Anounced as the most important NFP data this year… is today. They say it is upon this particular data the next FED decission will be based on. Well, I don’t know about that but it seems that market is evaluating today as higher volatility day - that is if we look at options market, the ranges are actually wider ahead of 8:30 EST.
Nothing changed in the midterm metrics since yesterday.
Intraday, a bit odd situation as dealers short-term signal which is component of intraday model (NOT A SIGNAL TO TRADE) is 1, so positive number, while sentiment and dealers reads are bearish. So a mixed bag here which means lower probability trades.
My plan is to hunt for that lower anchored vwap support in 5420 area for some kind of scalp.
So far we can see passive seller on tape in EU morning and already a bearish singleprint which won’t probably last but yea some bulls capitulated for sure. Wild day ahead.
Notes/Observations/Issues:
Starting on monday I’ll be rolling complete set of quad view into options through emini terminal + some videos with explainers. Bottom panel studies are solid and i’m already working on a bot (third one) based solely on these ones. This bot will defienietly trade every single day, multiple times most likely, so it’s gonna be a bit different to what we already have.
Also, this is the last free “pre-market commentary”. So, if you are not subscribed already, you might want to do that as the ability to buy substack subscription will be turned off in couple days.
Pre-Open Commentary distills key takeaways from the analysis of the London GEX and Structure posts and also serves as my personal journal (sort of).