Pre-Open Commentary | Sep 04, 24
Condensed Insight Before the Bell.
//Midterm Sentiment//
TrendPhase: Bullish (Aug 8)
Orderflow: Bearish (Aug 28)
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Positioning: Neutral (Sep 4)
Dealers: Neutral (Jul 11)
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Seasonality: Bearish (Sep 3)
VIX: Bearish (Sep 3)Intraday TrendPhase: Neutral
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//Actionable Levels//
Resistance: 5620, 5644-37
Support: 5493, 5415 Key takeways:
Hard decline and September has just started. So did seasonality/vix term structure already kicked in? Let’s begin from the macro model which ticked up a bit yesterday (fast macro). It is now both slow and fast giving bullish read. This makes positioning/macro model turn from bearish to neutral for me.
Next 24hrs are rather important from midterm TrendPhase perspective. If there will be another bearish attack we can get midterm signal turn on red light tomorrow.
Price is in a good area for bulls though, we have anchored vwap which already gave nice response yesterday, technicals are also pointing to at least short-term pause etc.
Notes/Observations/Issues:
Yesterday was bad for bot which is based mostly on intraday trendphase. It lightened up all the possible bullish signals… which was odd in itself as it only does that after shortened sessions. As I mentioned yesterday, I am not entirely sure how to interpret it in such conditions where we had no options data on previous session - like yesterday. So after yesterday’s experience I am adding a rule that there can not be a clear signal in such conditions (after session when options market are closed).
Pre-Open Commentary distills key takeaways from the analysis of the London GEX and Structure posts and also serves as my personal journal (sort of).