Pre-Open Commentary | Nov 8, 24
Condensed Insight Before the Bell.
//Midterm Sentiment//
(days)
TrendPhase: Bullish (Nov 8)
Orderflow: Neutral (Nov 6)
------------------------------
(weeks)
Positioning: Neutral/Bearish (Sep 27)
Dealers: Neutral (Oct 30)
------------------------------
(months)
Seasonality: Bullish (Oct 1)
VIX: Bearish (Nov 8)
//Longterm//
(Years)
Great Cycle: Bullish (since March 2020) until 2027/2028Intraday TrendPhase: Neutral/Bearish
------------------------------
//Actionable Levels//
Resistance: 6030-40
Support: 5920Key takeways:
Situation gets complicated as midterm trendphase generated long signal. Definietly I am not going to take this one as I engaged few short positions yesterday with options.
Right now I have dec. 6 spreads betting on min. 5% correction. Again this is a bet, a trade idea, based on couple metrics with certain degree of probability and defined risk parameters. This is not the view on the market. You have to distinguish these two things.
Yesterday I also tried to short intraday - generally in resistance area I posted in commentary - and it didnt work out, reactions were rather small, but positions were also small so no problem there.
I still think market should at least slow down, consolidate. There is some time, probably until tuesday for the market to show any bearish signs.
Yesterday’s Intraday Trading Recap:
Best trade yesterday was actually a top of session, orderbook +5 and ladder top resistance levels. Still, it was end of session and no significant follow through.
Notes/Observations/Issues:
Pre-Open Commentary distills key takeaways from the analysis of the London GEX and Structure posts and also serves as my personal journal (sort of).