Pre-Open Commentary | Aug 20, 24

Condensed Insight Before the Bell.

Key takeways:

Bulls made a clear sign yesterday that they want to control this market. With help of neutral/bullish trendphase sentiment intraday prices climbed higher up until our resistance. So is this all over for bears? Not exactly, not today. But before we get to intraday opportunities let’s summarize what we have in midterm metrics.

Two most important factors for me, so TrendPhase and Profile are neutral/bullish and bullish. Positioning is bearish since couple sessions now. Dealers I’d say neutral.
Seasonality we can assume made its downturn already but here is a little bearish hint. Look at the VIX term structure which changed recently:

As you can see implied vol is rising until october, which is also basically what we are expecting with seasonality. I would argue this adds to bearish score. So, midterm Im doing nothing to my long position as I already took half profits of it. But I am expecting that some correction is still very probable to happen. That is why im carefuly looking into intraday opportunities: