$BTC Update | July 3, 24
Binance BTCUSDT Analysis.
Key takeways:
In essence, after years of trading S&P 500, I am now experiencing something similar with BTC that I felt years ago while spculating on the ES. The strategy I have chosen appears to be going through a period of drawdown. I cannot blame myself for any mistakes; this time, I played everything correctly and ended the last trade with a loss. The price reacted to key support levels with great precision, but it wasn't a reaction that allowed for profit-taking. The market decided to deepen the decline and stopped me out of my position.
These, in my opinion, are the crucial moments for any speculator. In these situations, we make the most mistakes. We average down losses, burn accounts, or abandon strategies. While I managed to avoid risk management errors, a moment of doubt naturally crept in—wondering if simply following an interpretation of market profile is enough to succeed in BTC. Especially since I was surprised at how well it had worked so far.
Of course, objectively evaluating the situation, regardless of the metrics we use, one cannot discard a strategy because of a single loss. That much is clear.
So what now? I will follow it again, as much as I hate to do this, Iv been in this place before. Not once, not twice.
We have new bearish value and key resistance this time. Small initial position short and limit orders with leverage in key resistance.
If this won’t work, I will have to expand the strategy and make it a bit more complex. Which simply means I will add options flow elements from deribit and maybe some other tools available for this market. We’ll see. Work in progress.
Swing/Midterm Trend: Bearish
Market Condition: Trend Change, first key resistance established
Key Resistance zone: 61300-60700
Notes/Observations/Issues:
Value analysis is divided on three parts which make three separate strategies.
Trend - midterm timeframe, following values as they build.
Market Condition - analysing value from overbought/oversold pov. Countertrend trades. Can be used to reduce Trend positions.
Key Resistance/Support - can be utilized in high leverage short-term trades, but also as good “add to Trend” locations.
Pre-Open Commentary distills key takeaways from the analysis of the London GEX and Structure posts and also serves as my personal journal (sort of).